Evaluation and Analysis

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical metric used in football (soccer) to measure the quality of scoring opportunities that a team or player creates or concedes during a match. The xG metric is calculated by analyzing a variety of factors, including the location of the shot, the angle of the shot, the type of shot (e.g. header, volley, etc.), the number of defenders between the shooter and the goal, and other variables that are believed to influence the probability of a shot being converted into a goal. xG is often used to help evaluate a team's or player's attacking or defensive performance in a match, by measuring the quality of the scoring opportunities they create or concede. For example, if a team has an xG of 2.0 for a match, it means that the quality of their scoring opportunities suggests that they should have scored two goals on average. Similarly, if a team concedes an xG of 1.0, it means that the quality of the chances that their opponents had suggests that they should have scored one goal on average. xG can also be used to compare the performance of different players or teams over a longer period of time, such as a season or multiple seasons. By analyzing a team's or player's xG over time, analysts can get a sense of how effective they are at creating or preventing high-quality scoring opportunities. xG has become an increasingly popular metric in football analysis and is now used by many professional teams, analysts, and media outlets. However, it's important to remember that xG is just one of many tools that can be used to evaluate football performance, and should be used in conjunction with other metrics and qualitative analysis. So, can xG statistics be helpful when picking winners? No doubt! Expected goals (xG) can be a useful tool when picking winners in football matches, but it should be used in conjunction with other factors such as team form, injuries, and head-to-head records. xG is a good indicator of a team's attacking and defensive performance, and can provide valuable insights into a team's ability to create high-quality scoring opportunities and prevent their opponents from doing the same. If a team has consistently high xG values over a period of time, it suggests that they have a strong attacking threat and are able to create high-quality chances on a regular basis. Similarly, if a team has consistently low xG values, it suggests that they may struggle to score goals and are vulnerable to conceding against strong attacking teams. However, it's important to remember that xG is just one factor to consider when picking winners in football matches.

Live betting, also known as in-play betting, is a popular form of sports betting that allows bettors to place wagers on events that are already in progress. While live betting can be exciting and potentially profitable, there are several challenges that bettors face when trying to successfully predict the outcome of a live event. One of the biggest challenges with live betting is the speed of the game. In many sports, events can happen quickly and unexpectedly, making it difficult for bettors to react in time. For example, in soccer, a team might score a goal within seconds of the start of a match, and by the time a bettor has had a chance to react and place a bet, the odds may have already shifted significantly. Another challenge with live betting is that the odds can change rapidly and unpredictably. As the game progresses, the odds of various outcomes can shift based on a wide range of factors, such as injuries, substitutions, and changes in game strategy. This can make it difficult for bettors to anticipate how the odds might change and to make informed decisions about which bets to place. In addition, live betting can be challenging because it requires a lot of mental focus and attention. Unlike traditional sports betting, where bettors have time to research and analyze their wagers before placing them, live betting requires bettors to be constantly engaged with the game and to make split-second decisions about which bets to place. This can be mentally exhausting and can lead to poor decision-making if bettors become fatigued or overwhelmed. Another challenge with live betting is that it can be difficult to get accurate and up-to-date information about the game. While live streaming and live scoring can provide bettors with real-time updates on the game, there are often delays and inaccuracies in the data that can make it difficult to make informed betting decisions. In addition, some sports, such as tennis, rely heavily on subjective judgments and opinions, which can be difficult to interpret and analyze in real-time. Finally, live betting can be challenging because it requires a significant amount of self-discipline and control. Because live betting is so fast-paced and exciting, it can be easy for bettors to get caught up in the moment and to make impulsive or irrational bets. This can lead to significant losses and can damage a bettor's bankroll over time. Despite these challenges, live betting can be a fun and potentially profitable form of sports betting for those who are willing to put in the time and effort to develop their skills and strategies. To succeed at live betting, it is important to be patient, disciplined, and focused, and to develop a deep understanding of the sports and events that you are betting on. Additionally, it is important to have a solid bankroll management strategy in place to help manage your risk and to avoid significant losses. So to sum it all up, live betting is a challenging but exciting form of sports betting that requires bettors to be constantly engaged with the game and to make quick and informed decisions. While there are many challenges associated with live betting, including the speed of the game, the unpredictability of the odds, and the need for mental focus and discipline, those who are willing to put in the effort to develop their skills and strategies can find success and profit in this exciting form of sports betting.

How to become a sports betting professional - Step 4: Evaluate the information and follow your gut feeling. Alright then. Until now, we have discussed the value of taking sports betting seriously, the importance of establishing a bankroll, and the value of establishing a betting structure. Now we come to the part where we discuss the most important thing in sports betting. The analysis. There is a famous quote from the movie Margin Call, which we think fits very well with how the sports betting world works. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat. Well, I don't cheat. And although I like to think we have some pretty smart people in this room, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first." Being first in sports betting can mean two things. One is to be ready with their analysis of an upcoming match even before the companies have released their odds. Then you can grab the odds directly if there is something that stands out. Many people think that the companies' bookmakers are so good that it hardly matters at all anyway, but that is very far from the truth. In fact, most bookmakers do not even work full-time with individual sports. Most people are busy overlooking various live markets that can affect a wide range of sports. Usually, they do not even have time to watch the matches they will be compiling odds on. That creates an opportunity, right? Just to take an example, one of the world's largest companies came out with two odds releases in The Men's Semi-finals in one of tennis's biggest tournaments. Huge markets that swallow big bets. Both "odds releases" were huge mistakes that were quickly corrected by the betting community. Player X opened at +162 against Player Y and was immediately sent up to +240. A giant error from the odds compiler. In the other one, they released Player X to +120. The sports betting community jumped on the other guy super fast, so they had to correct Player X to +175 in just minutes. An equally significant mistake. And this kind of stuff happens all the time. The betting companies may not care so much because it is a low price they have to pay for their mistakes. Still, it definitely supports that there is room to pinch good odds if you are quick with your analysis and dare to trust your gut feeling. The second way to be first in sports betting is when something happens after the odds have already been up for a while and have stabilized. It can be anything, but the most classic example is when you hear that one ice hockey team had to leave the entire first and second lineup at home due to stomach illness. And absolutely, if you are friends with the players in the team and can make the assessment that you are probably among the first to take part in the information, there is probably nothing to doubt. Place a max 6% bet! But it's an entirely different thing when you see that someone on Twitter posted that information over an hour ago. Probably there was a gap of 15 minutes where some players had a chance to pinch an odds that had value, but an hour later, the betting companies already had time to correct the affected odds. That was not the case at all just ten years ago, but all parties are much more alert in 2022, and this is something that will continue to be harder to exploit. Being first is very time-consuming, as you may understand. It requires a lot of monitoring and updating on pages where the odds are expected to come. But undoubtedly worth it for those who have the tenacity to be on their toes, so to speak. He who coined the quote thinks it is much easier to be first, and although we can agree with it to some extent, it is not the approach we have taken in our sports betting. It happens, but we rarely pinch odds within five minutes of them coming out. This is because you can usually bet only $100 or similar in an initial stage. That's why we often make the assessment that it may be better to wait for deeper markets and hope that the odds are the same instead of pushing down the current odds by clicking $100 at a time. For those who don't know how the betting companies conduct their business, that is pretty much the secret sauce they use. Odds compilers release their odds with very low limits and then watch how the betting community reacts. If many punters lean one specific way, they just correct their odds until the interest is equal on both sides. That way, an initial mistake by the odds compilers is not as costly. When talking about this issue among our colleagues, one of us at Sportsbettingprofessionals.com, who has been following tennis for many years, claims that he knows the women's tennis players better than anyone else. That he knows how their minds work and what weaknesses they have. Also, how they look and act when they feel they are in shape. Most often, he tries to use that bank of knowledge to find angles and factors that the market did not take into account at all when setting the odds. In other words, he often thinks he is alone with "his thinking" about why it might be a good idea to bet on a certain player in a specific situation. This means he can usually find values ​​in odds that have been up for more than 24 hours, which is a big advantage. However, an advantage that takes hard work to acquire. When analyzing a match and trying to consider whether the information you have acquired is reason enough to bet on a specific odds, then always ask yourself these three questions: 1. Is the information reliable? 2. How likely is it that other sports bettors have the same assessment? 3. Is the relevant information - at this specific moment - embedded in the odds? Having the discipline to back off and take a step back is crucial if you are not convinced that the odds have value. If you start to fabricate value bets because your patience is running out, you can quickly see the balance take a downturn. But if you ask these questions to yourself and are honest and self-critical in your answers, you have come a long way towards becoming a winning player. Read step 5 here.