How to become a sports betting professional - Step 6
How to become a sports betting professional - Step 6: Live with your market!
Some claim that if you only place your bets within minutes before the game starts and the betting market closes, you will inevitably lose money in the long run. The argument is then that the "market", which can be described as the entire sports betting collective, in the end almost always "lands" on a closing odds that is correct.
We believe that this attitude is both correct and incorrect at the same time. Games are complex, and like the stock market, the market is governed by many psychological factors. The market itself is not an omniscient being that is always right. On the other hand, it is more likely that the closer you get to the start of the match, the more relevant information will get through the filter. Sometimes the market runs crazy just before closing without anyone really understanding why. At such times, it can be very lucrative to dare to trust yourself and your analysis.
Some sports give you a reason to be extra cautious because it's all about two individual players. Suppose a professional sports bettor, who works with a betting team, is on sight and sees one player with heavily wrapped legs during the warm-up. In that case, the odds will automatically move a lot. Such situations also occur in other sports, so there is every reason to be careful and suspicious whenever you see significant odds movements.
Regarding following your market, it is almost impossible to say what kind of knowledge you intend to absorb. The goal is to learn from many experiences and understand how the market thinks. When you then sit with the result in hand after the match has been played, you can start solving the puzzle of what went right and wrong. If you do it repeatedly, there will come a day when you recognize a specific situation with the same conditions as another match you followed 1 week, 1 month, or maybe 1 year ago. The goal is to simply have a better overall picture of the situation than the market. History, as so often before, has a tendency to repeat itself. That is just as true in sports betting.
Suppose you really want to be zealous and have decided to become the best football punter, hockey punter, tennis punter, or whatever sport it may be. In that case, this is a step you can not afford to skip.
The methodology is straightforward, but it's mostly about actually doing it. Do the following:
1. Make your own analysis of the upcoming match. Set your own odds as if you were the odds compiler.
2. Take note of the opening odds of the event. Bet if you think there is value, but also follow the games and do the same where you have not placed any bets.
3. Follow the market's odds movements.
4. Take note of closing odds. Excel is a terrific tool to use.
5. Do your own analysis afterward and make conclusions. More often than not, it will become apparent to you where the value was. It might just be that you didn't see it. Those situations will never stop happening. Learn from it.
If you follow the procedure above over and over again, you will soon be an experienced sports betting expert who can snatch an opening odds with definite confidence.
Someone has said that "Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint".
It is a simple truth. So remember this; if you do the job and take these steps, you will have a foot in front of most people in the race to become the most successful and winning sports betting expert within your field.
Read step 7 here.
